Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, plans to visit Taiwan in August. China issued a severe warning, suggesting that the possibility of military response cannot be ruled out - some people believe that this refers to the possibility of intercepting Pelosi's aircraft visiting Taiwan with fighter jets.
On July 23, Josh Rogin, a columnist of the Washington Post, even revealed that the US military might mobilize aircraft carriers to escort Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
People have various assumptions about the triggering events of the Taiwan Strait war, but this may not be one of the common assumptions; The general assumption is that the Taiwan authorities will cross the red line in some way, split China substantially and irreversibly, and force the PLA to start reunification by force.
Pelosi has a long history of Anti China. The mid-term election of the U.S. Congress is approaching, and the prospects of the Democratic Party are bleak. Pelosi needs to visit Taiwan to canvass for the Democratic Party. Maintaining the majority status of the Democratic Party in the house of Representatives is related to Pelosi's political life. Losing the majority status will not only make the speaker impossible, but may also be held accountable by the party, and it will be "late".
It's hard to say whether Biden is dissuading or secretly supporting. On the one hand, if Congress changes to a Republican majority in the mid-term election, Biden's political life will be on the ventilator. On the other hand, if the United States in Biden's era provoked the war between the United States and China, he would be a sinner of history. This is a dilemma for him.
For China, both the White House and Congress represent the United States. No matter which branch of the U.S. government comes from, China will never allow the United States to clearly support "Taiwan independence". Taiwan's crossing the red line means the start of Wutong, and so does foreign countries crossing the red line.
No one can predict whether China will send fighter planes to intercept. This is an option, but not the only one.
Technically, interception is completely possible, and the PLA fighter has sufficient range and weapon range. Military exercises were held one after another around the Taiwan Strait, and fighter planes continued to patrol in the air. If Pelosi wanted to break through the Customs by force, let's try it. Expulsion, forced landing and direct shooting down were all options.
Shooting down the speaker of the U.S. House of representatives directly is certainly a war action, but the president of the U.S. House of Representatives openly violates China's sovereignty, which is equivalent to undeclared war. It is beyond reproach to use war action to fight back against war action.
Pelosi is the third successor after the president and vice president of the United States. The U.S. military has the responsibility to ensure Pelosi's safety, and it is its duty to study the escort, but this does not mean no objection. Biden used military disapproval as an excuse when asked, which accurately reflected the military's position.
Pelosi is qualified to use U.S. military aircraft, including special aircraft painted by the U.S. government and even military transport aircraft. If it is possible for China to take no drastic action against the arrival of unarmed US military aircraft in Taiwan, it is a completely different problem for us warplanes to fly directly into Taiwan's airspace to carry out combat operations. Taiwan is a part of China. Theoretically, it is possible for PLA fighter planes to directly fire in the name of intercepting armed invasion by foreign fighter planes.
However, in the case of high confrontation, it is inconceivable that Pelosi's plane entered Taiwan's airspace without escort. It is technically possible for us fighter planes to hand over Taiwan fighter planes at the 12 nautical mile line or somewhere. However, in the case of high confrontation, the US, Taiwan and PLA fighter planes are intertwined at close range, and everything is possible. It is simply a direct invitation to wipe the gun and go off.
The indirect option is to occupy Dongyin Island, the Dongsha Islands, Taiping Island, etc. Each of these islands has important strategic value and will play a major role in the future battle of military reunification. Taking the opportunity to seize them will benefit a lot, but the impact is relatively indirect. If it causes a rebound in the west, China's anti rebound will not be ruled out, and a certain no fly zone and no sail zone will be directly implemented on Taiwan Island.
The Taiwan authorities are also restless. On the one hand, they are eager to get more explicit U.S. support. On the other hand, they are afraid that U.S. support will directly lead to a showdown, and Taiwan simply cannot accept any showdown. In any case, Taiwan will be the biggest loser if the tension in the Taiwan Strait escalates to confrontation, and any intense confrontation may bring a devastating blow to Taiwan. The most intense war to liberate Taiwan is certainly the destruction of both gold and stone. The no fly zones and no fly zones are also fatal, but the breath is cut off slowly.
National reunification has always been the aspiration of the Chinese people, peaceful reunification is the first choice, and armed reunification is the option. The threshold of Wu Tong is very high, but Pelosi's visit to Taiwan may force the PLA to resolutely cross the threshold, which is what Taiwan is most afraid to see.
The Taiwan authorities have repeatedly linked the situation in the Taiwan Strait with Ukraine, but Taiwan sincerely does not want to become a second Ukraine. If the Russian army is cutting meat with a blunt knife in Ukraine, the PLA is grinding cockroaches with a road roller in the Taiwan Strait.